Sunday, July 12, 2015

Eurogroup Fails To Reach Deal, Gives Greece 24 Hours To Accept Draconian Terms

When earlier today we revealed the terms of the "leaked" Eurogroup statement, which as we also reported would fail to reach a deal for a Greek Bailout #3, we said "Germany and 5 other "northern" states want Greece out, but they generously offer Greece the opportunity to push the "Grexit" button itself (especially since it is only "temporary"). Unless, of course, Greece is willing to cede all of its sovereignty to Germany in which case it can generously stay."
That's pretty much what just happened when after a day-long meeting of the Eurogroup, the European FinMins were unable to reach a conclusion on the third Greek bailout and instead once again punted the revised term sheet, this time with absolutely draconian terms, back to Tsipras, and told him he has until tomorrow to agree to the terms, and until Wednesday to pass them into law, for talks to even begin!
  • SCHELLING: GREECE MUST DECIDE BY MONDAY IF IT ACCEPTS STATEMENT
  • STUBB SAYS GREEK LAWS MUST BE PUSHED THROUGH BY JULY 15
  • STUBB SAYS GREECE MUST PASS WHOLE PACKAGE TO START AID TALKS”
More details from Bloomberg: "The decisive point is that Greece must decide as of tomorrow whether it accepts this statement,” Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling says. "When all these conditions are fulfilled, a further program will be negotiated. Not before."
As for Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb, he said that the Greek parliament has to approve whole package before bailout talks can start. "We made a lot of progress and were able to draft I think a very ambitous proposal and report for the heads of state and government."
"It’s a document that has far-reaching conditionality on three accounts” -- laws by July 15, prior actions on labor reforms, VAT and taxes, four bullet points that are quite far reaching on privatization and other things.

“If there is to be an opening of ESM negotiations, all of these conditions have to be met and approved by both the Greek government and the parliament."
It is unclear just how the Greek temporary exit language, which was included in the final deal, will figure in the Greek negotiations.
As for the European summit, which is very much moot in the absense of a deal , and which is starting now, here is what will be discussed today via Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat: "We were told that today’s summit was to discuss Plan B should no agreement be reached."
"This meeting, from what I can understand we are going to discuss all options"  Talks on Greek situation will "see what could be done so Greece may be kept in the euro.... "But not at any cost. What was sufficient two weeks ago is no more as things have deteriorated."

It is also worth reminding readers, that Greek banks, which have a few hundred million euros left, will run out of cash in the next 24-48 hours, which probably means that any deal delay at this point is simply a ploy to accelerate the involuntary Greek exit as a result of the country having to adopt its own currency, whether parallel, serial, Drachma, Renminbi, or some other kind.

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