Thursday, July 30, 2015

Vintage Southwestern Sterling Silver Turquoise Pendant Hallmarked


Vintage Southwestern Sterling Silver Turquoise Pendant 
Beautiful Collectible Southwestern Pendant turquoise stone with warm brown matrix throughout set in sterling silver frame with four silver drops, twisted rope and an usual scroll design.
  Very Good Vintage Condition. 
Dimensions:   1 inch in length not including the bail by 1 inch in width. Weighs 8.0 grams. 
Hallmarked "YTH", 
Comes from a smoke free environment. 

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

Vintage Native American Sterling Silver Blue Nugget Turquoise Red Coral Ring



Vintage Native American Navajo Blue Turquoise Red Coral Sterling Silver Ring
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Ring Size is 11.5.
Weighs 13.3 grams.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Native-American-Sterling-Silver-Blue-Nugget-Turquoise-Red-Coral-Ring-/291365013575?hash=item43d6b54847

Vintage Southwestern Turquoise & Coral Sterling Silver Ring Bear Paws Accent


Vintage Native American Turquoise & Coral Sterling Silver Ring Bear Paws Accent
Very Good Vintage Condition, Ready to Wear.
Ring Size is 6.5.
Weighs 7.6 grams.
Tested for Sterling Silver
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Southwestern-Turquoise-Coral-Sterling-Silver-Ring-Bear-Paws-Accent-/301582613205?hash=item4637b97ad5

Vintage Southwestern Turquoise & Coral Sterling Silver Ring Feather Accent


Vintage Southwestern Turquoise & Coral Sterling Silver Ring Feather Accent
Very Good Vintage Condition, Ready to Wear.
Ring Size is 5.25.
Weighs 8.0 grams.
 Tested for Sterling Silver
Comes from a smoke free environment

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Southwestern-Turquoise-Coral-Sterling-Silver-Ring-Feather-Accent-/301582618572?hash=item4637b98fcc

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Vintage Signed TRIFARI Gold Tone Apple wih Stem & Leaves Brooch

One Day Auction Sale!


Vintage Designer Signed Trifari Gold Tone Apple Stem & Leaves Brooch
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Hallmarked "Trifari"
Measurements: 1 and 1/2 inches in length and 3/4 inch in width.
Strong, Secure working clasp.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Place a Bid on this beautiful collector Trifari Brooch Pin:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Signed-TRIFARI-Gold-Tone-Apple-wih-Stem-Leaves-Brooch-/291518977334?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43dfe29536

Coin 1 oz Silver Round - Candy Heart Enameled w/Box & Capsule

Sale 50% Off-One Day Sale


Gift From the heart!
Great Gift for Birthday, Wedding or Anniversary
Sweet Silver Gift! A Candy Heart Silver round is a perfect gift that comes from the heart and is something that can bring fond memories for years to come. 

The front of this Silver round depicts a heart-shaped box of candies, flowers and a bottle of wine, while the back of the Silver round is blank for engraving purposes.

 This Silver round includes a beautiful red presentation box and a capsule. This .999-fine Silver round makes a great Silver collectible or Silver gift. Buy a Candy Heart Silver round for your sweetheart or special someone today! 

Specifications Product ID: 60236 Year: N/A Grade: N/A Grade Service: None Mint Mark: None Metal Content: 1 troy oz Purity: .999 Manufacturer: Silvertowne Thickness: 2.87 mm Diameter: 39 mm

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Coin-1-oz-Silver-Round-Candy-Heart-Enameled-w-Box-Capsule-/291353750513?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43d6096bf1


1 oz Silver Round Coin Four Leaf Clover Enameled w/Box & Capsule

On Sale 50% Off-One Day Sale


 Displaying the four-leaf clover symbol associated with luck, this .999-fine Silver round makes a great Silver collectible or Silver gift for any time of the year. 

The front of this Silver round depicts a green four-leaf clover, while the back of the Silver round is blank for engraving purposes. 

This round is hand-enameled and oven-baked one color at a time, and includes a box and a capsule. 

Year: N/A Grade: N/A Grade Service: None Mint Mark: None Metal Content: 1 troy oz Purity: .999 Manufacturer: Silvertowne Thickness: 2.87 mm Diameter: 39 mm

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-oz-Silver-Round-Coin-Four-Leaf-Clover-Enameled-w-Box-Capsule-/291399135539?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43d8bdf133

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Vintage Chanel CC Logo Sterling Silver Marcasite Rhinestone Ring Size 9


Vintage Chanel CC Logo Sterling Silver Marcasites with Clear Rhinestones Ring
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Ring Size is 9.
Weighs  5.5 grams.
Hallmarked, "925" .
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Chanel-CC-Logo-Sterling-Silver-Marcasite-Rhinestone-Ring-Size-9-/291516294318?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43dfb9a4ae

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Vintage Sterling Silver Mabe Pearl Oval Pendant Hallmarked CS


Vintage Sterling Silver Mabe Pearl Oval Pendant Hallmarked CS
Stunning, Shimmering large Mabe Pearl set in oval sterling silver pendant..
 Very Good Vintage Condition.
Dimensions:   1 and 1/4 inch in length not including the bail by 1 inch in width. Weighs 10.8 grams.
Hallmarked "CS",
Comes from a smoke free environment.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Sterling-Silver-Mabe-Pearl-Oval-Pendant-Hallmarked-CS-/301690748288?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463e2b7d80

NEW Green Connemara Marble 14 CT Rolled Gold Pendant Necklace 18" Chain W/Box

1 Day eBay Auction!


Green Connemara Marble 14 CT Rolled Gold Pendant Necklace 18" Chain
Connemara Marble is Ireland's National Gem and is over 900 million years old and unique to Ireland. New, never worn.
Comes with original box.
18" chain
1" pendant
Comes from a smoke free environment.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/NEW-Green-Connemara-Marble-14-CT-Rolled-Gold-Pendant-Necklace-18-Chain-W-Box-/291517784542?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43dfd061de

Vintage Signed Swarovski Rhinestone Gold Tone & Crystals Earrings




Vintage Swarovski Gold Tone & Clear Rhinestones Earrings Hallmarked S.A.L.
Excellent Pre-Owned Condition.
Measurements: 1 inch in length and 1/2 inch in width.
Hallmarked "S.A.L.".

Free Fast, First Class Mail Shipping.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Signed-Swarovski-Rhinestone-Gold-Tone-Crystals-Earrings-/301693611500?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463e572dec

1 ounce $50 American Eagle Gold Coin Bullion 2002 Uncirculated

1 ounce $50 American Eagle Gold Coin Bullion 2002
Brilliant uncirculated American Eagle 1 ounce fine gold coin from the original US Mint Roll.
From my father's estate. The coin has been stored since it was purchased in precious metals storage vault.
Will be shipped Express Mail through USPS with delivery confirmation and insured.
Will only ship to the confirmed address on file with Ebay.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1-ounce-50-American-Eagle-Gold-Coin-Bullion-2002-Uncirculated-/301691842300?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463e3c2efc

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Vintage Renoir Copper Calla Lily Screw Back Earrings



Vintage Renoir Copper Calla Lily Screw Back Earrings 
Very Good Pre-Owned Condition.
Measurements: 1 and 1/4 inches in length by 3/4 inch in width at its widest section.
Weighs 11.7 grams for the pair.
Hallmarked "Renoir".
Free Fast, First Class Mail Shipping.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Renoir-Copper-Calla-Lily-Screw-Back-Earrings-/301679064233?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463d7934a9

Friday, July 17, 2015

Antique Victorian 10K Yellow Gold Opal & Seed Pearl Ring Size 6


Antique Victorian 10K Yellow Gold Opal & Seed Pearl Ring Size 6 
Featuring 3 genuine opal gemstones- with beautiful flashes of green, blue, purple, & yellow
Center Opal Stones are surrounded by 6 seed pearls.
Circa late 1800s - genuine Victorian Era piece
Stunning antique opal ring! Very Good Antique Condition.
Ring Size 6
Weighs 1.6 grams.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Antique-Victorian-10K-Yellow-Gold-Opal-Seed-Pearl-Ring-Size-6-/291517656590?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43dfce6e0e

Vintage Scottish Heart & Celtic Knot Design Spinner Ring Size 5.5 Hallmark PSGL



Vintage Scottish Heart & Celtic Knot Design Spinner Ring Size 5.5 Hallmark PSGL  
Very Good Vintage Condition. 
Ring Size is 5.5
Weighs 9.1 grams. 
Hallmarked "PSGL" for Scottish Designer
Comes from a smoke free environment.


Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:


Thursday, July 16, 2015

Vintage WEISS 1950's Double Link Crystal Rhinestones Swirl Accents Bracelet


Vintage WEISS 1950's Double Link Clear Crystal Rhinestones Swirl Accents Bracelet
Very Good Vintage Condition. No missing stones. Includes original Albert Weiss Jewelry Case. There is no safety chain.
Measurements: 7 inches in length and  3/4 inch in width.
Strong, Secure working clasp.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-WEISS-1950s-Double-Link-Crystal-Rhinestones-Swirl-Accents-Bracelet-/291502448556?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43dee65fac

Debt Is The Barbarous Relic! Not Gold

“The first form of culture,” wrote historian Will Durant, “is agriculture.”
And he was right. When human beings discovered 10,000 years ago that the soil would provide more food than they could possibly eat, this changed everything.
For the first time ever, early humans could actually work WITH nature and reliably control their food production.
They were no longer dependent on unpredictable wildlife or the dangers of the hunt.
Nor were they resigned to devouring an entire beast in one sitting, only to end up right back where they started– in search of their next meal.
Agriculture gave them the opportunity to produce far more than they could consume. And to easily save the surplus for a later time.
To save like this is completely natural. And by that I mean saving is part of nature.
Dogs bury their bones. Squirrels hoard nuts. Even plants set aside some excess solar energy for a rainy day by producing and storing sugar.
For us humans, agriculture was our earliest form of savings. And it was the key ingredient to civilization.
With a vast pool of food savings at his disposal, early man could put down roots and build societies without having to worry about where the next meal would come from.
It was this sense of savings that formed the dividing line between primitive man and civilized man.
This reminds me of that old criticism about gold being a “barbarous relic”.
John Maynard Keynes first coined the term when he denounced the gold standard, and Paul Krugman has echoed this sentiment in our own time.
Both men are champions of government spending and the inexhaustible creation of paper money.
It’s a curious statement, though, given that gold is an acknowledged form of savings.
Even governments and central banks around the world continue to hold gold as part of their official reserves.
Owning gold is saving, which by definition is civilized, i.e. NOT barbarous.
Debt, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. It is a lack of savings that shows a complete disregard for the future.
It is the modern equivalent of gorging on some wild beast with no thought to tomorrow’s meal… or in this case, no thought of tomorrow’s generation.
Debt is the barbarous relic. Not gold.
And governments are up to their eyeballs in it, continuing to engage in this primitive, uncivilized behavior with wanton abandon.
Don’t expect them to change their ways.
Our society awards our most respected prizes for intellectual achievement to faux-scientists who encourage these barbarous acts.
They create complex mathematical models, ‘proving’ why our Neanderthal governments should print more money, borrow more debt, and stage fake alien invasions to boost the economy.
No doubt future anthropologists will find this to be a curious and savage system.

Vintage Southwestern Sterling Silver Beads & Turquoise Nuggets Choker Necklace



Vintage Southwestern Sterling Silver Beads & Turquoise Nuggets Choker Necklace
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Dimensions:   19 Inches in length.
Weighs 52.8 grams.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Southwestern-Sterling-Silver-Beads-Turquoise-Nuggets-Choker-Necklace-/301680516911?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463d8f5f2f

Vintage Eastman Kodak Parts Chain Lens Assorted Coins Steam-punk Necklace


Vintage Eastman Kodak Parts Chain Lens Assorted Coins Steam-punk Necklace
Really Cool Up-cycled Vintage Eastman Kodak Camera parts including chain with the Eastman Kodak Co nameplate and shutter lens viewer. The lens viewer has Blessed inserted on one side and a family photo on the other side. Assorted coins accent the vintage camera chain to complete a fun, unique steam-punk style necklace. Very Good Vintage Condition.
Dimensions: 36 Inches.
Hallmarked "Eastman Kodak Co.".
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Eastman-Kodak-Parts-Chain-Lens-Assorted-Coins-Steam-punk-Necklace-/291508354153?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43df407c69

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Vintage Turquoise & Clear Rhinestones Gold Tone Necklace & Bracelet Set



Vintage Turquoise & Clear Rhinestone Gold Tone Necklace & Clamper Bracelet Matching Set
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Dimensions: Necklace is 16 and 1/2 Inches. Bracelet is 7 and 1/2 Inches.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Turquoise-Clear-Rhinestones-Gold-Tone-Necklace-Bracelet-Set-/291510265569?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43df5da6e1

Vintage Native American Sterling Silver Navajo Cuff Bracelet Signed



Vintage Native American Navajo Sterling Silver Cuff Bracelet Hallmarked M.C. Tsasie - PGS Coins
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Weighs 19.2 grams.
Measures 6 Inches with opening of 1 and 1/4 inches.
Hallmarked "M.C. Tsasie".
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available at PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Native-American-Sterling-Silver-Navajo-Cuff-Bracelet-Signed-/291514044393?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43df974fe9

Vintage Pink Solitaire Pave CZ Accents Gold Vermeil Sterling Silver Ring 6.25



Vintage Pink Solitaire Pave CZ Accents Gold Vermeil Sterling Silver Ring 6.25
Very Good Vintage Condition.
Ring Size is 6.25.
Weighs  7.4 grams.
Hallmarked, "925" , "X1013.
Comes from a smoke free environment.

Available from PGS Coins eBay Store:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-Pink-Solitaire-Pave-CZ-Accents-Gold-Vermeil-Sterling-Silver-Ring-6-25-/301687531352?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item463dfa6758

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Greeks Can’t Tap Cash, Gold, Silver In Bank Safety Deposit Boxes

- Greek capital controls also prevent access to contents of safe deposit boxes
- Restrictions on safe deposit access doesn’t protect banking system unless contents confiscated
- Readers should heed warnings by Marc Faber and Ian Spreadbury of Fidelity
- Important to own assets outside banking system and not in bank safe deposit boxes
- Own physical bullion in private safety deposit boxes and the safest private vaults
Capital controls have been in place in Greece since the start of the month to protect the banks from mass withdrawals by nervous Greeks. They have rightly been concerned about their savings, the collapse of the banking system and the loss of their savings in deposit confiscations or bail-ins.
Pic 2 - SDB
Many Greeks were also withdrawing their cash because they fear the country might be forced back onto the drachma. However a little known fact is that, Greeks who had prepared for bank runs by withdrawing cash and buying gold and silver bullion and then lodging that bullion and indeed cash into safety deposit boxes have also been caught up in the draconian capital controls.
We have warned about this for many years and warned as recently as April this year that people should avoid using safety deposit boxes in banks.
“Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place”, Nadia Valavani, a Deputy Finance Minister in Greece told local television station according to a Reuters report.
The report (Greeks cannot tap cash in safe deposit boxes under capital controls) was little noticed at it was published on the less trafficked ‘Bonds’ section of Reuters.com on Sunday July 5th at 1:58 pm EDT or 6:58 pm GMT. Sunday afternoon and evening is a time when traders, investors and even eagle eyed news junkies are likely to be taking a well earned break.
The notion that safe deposit boxes – facilities that are used by many precious metals investors and others seeking to safeguard their wealth and valuables – need to come under capital controls to protect against bank runs is a dubious one.
This cash is not in the banking system – its withdrawal would have no negative impact on the system. Its availability to its owner might bring cash into circulation which would benefit the wider community.
The only reason to put access to safe deposit boxes under capital controls – measures which were agreed between the government and the banks – is because the banks and governments wish to retain the option of confiscating the contents of those boxes should the crisis deepen.
The low level war on cash and gold looks set to intensify, and governments look likely to wish to prevent savers and investors taking their cash out of the bank and putting them in safe deposit boxes.
This draconian move may be part of an endeavour to do that.
Safety deposit boxes are a convenient facility to store a small quantity of precious metals. However – as the Greek situation demonstrates – the convenience of ease of access to a local safe deposit box can be offset by the fact that governments and banks can lay claim to their contents at the stroke of a pen.
It would be unwise to view Greece as an exceptional case.
Such complacency is not shared by respected economic historian Marc Faber who recently warned Bloomberg viewers that “Greece is coming to your neighbourhood very soon” because “the world is over-indebted”.
This view has been echoed by many well placed observers from HSBC, Goldman Sachs and Fidelity in recent months. Most recently Fidelity’s Ian Spreadbury made the highly unorthodox recommendation that savers should keep some precious metals and cash “under the mattress”.
What happens next in Greece will determine the fate of the deposit box holders and indeed all citizens in Greece and indeed the wider Eurozone.
The ECB, reneging on its duty of lender of last resort, has put Syriza in an untenable position. It should be remembered that Mario Draghi came to the ECB from Goldman Sachs despite the fact that Goldman were found to have aided the previous Greek government in order to cook the books in order to borrow €1 billion that it could not afford in 2008 and indeed to join the monetary union. Indeed it is alleged the Draghi himself helped cook the books but he denies this and says Goldman did this prior to his joining.
The Telegraph’s AEP writes, “The Greek banks are on the verge of collapse. There is not enough cash left to cover ATM withdrawals of €60 billion each day through this week, or to cover weekly payments of €120 to pensioners and the unemployed – that is the to say, the tiny fraction of the jobless who receive anything at all.”
In the run up to the referendum former Finance Minister Varoufakis had made assurances that the EU had no legal power to expel Greece from the euro – a statement which likely encouraged the electorate to vote “No”. True though this may be, the EU institutions have instead created the conditions whereby Greece either capitulates completely or is forced to leave the euro of its own accord.
The “deal” which Tsipras must now get through parliament in Athens may save the banking system for now – or not, depending on the reaction of the public to the deal – but at great cost to Greece.
Pensions will will be slashed, Value Added Tax (VAT) or sales tax will be imposed on goods and services.
Vital elements of Greece’s infrastructure will be sold off to businesses with close links to the financial institutions who played a key role in creating the crisis – and yet have only benefitted from the repercussions – following the typical IMF template for debt colonialism.
Whatever the outcome with regards to the contents of safe deposit boxes in Greece – while not forgetting that there are far more pressing issues at stake for the people of Greece and Greek society – there is a clear lesson from recent events.
As we consistently warn gold, silver and cash stored within the financial and banking system is in no way secure in the event of a crisis.
Investors should hold some physical gold and silver outside of the banking system in secure and private safe deposit box facilities. Precious metals should also be held in jurisdictions with a reputation for respecting private property such as Switzerland, Hong Kong and Singapore.
Must-read Guide:  7 Key Gold Must Haves

MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,153.20, EUR 1,046.89 and GBP 745.27 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,154.95, EUR 1,043.13 and GBP 741.59 per ounce. 
Pic 1 - Chart1
Silver in USD – 5 Years
Gold fell $5.10 or 0.44 percent yesterday to $1,157.90 an ounce. Silver slipped $0.08 or 0.51 percent to $15.50 an ounce.
Gold in Singapore for immediate delivery ticked lower and gold in Switzerland also weakened despite considerable uncertainty regarding the Greek “deal”.
Gold prices are down for a second day after ending yesterday down half a percent in dollar terms but 1% higher in euro terms as the euro fell on international markets. Support is at $1,155 and that level is holding for now.
Asian shares were  mixed and future contracts tracking China’s key stock indexes fell sharply, suggesting a three-day rebound may be losing momentum.
European stocks are lower today on concerns that Tsipras may not be able to get the debt deal over the line in the Greek parliament. Even if he does, his government may not last long thereafter and a subsequent Greek government may elect to honour the will of the Greek people and rip up what most fair minded people see as a very unfair and completely impractical “bail out”.
Euro zone finance ministers will hold a telephone conference to discuss Greek bridge financing tomorrow, Austria’s finance minister said on today. It does not necessarily need a euro group summit to agree on bridge financing, Hans Joerg Schelling said. “If a reasonable proposal comes up, the euro zone finance ministers probably can decide about it in a conference call,” Schelling said.
The  world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares, rise 1.5 tonnes on Monday, its first inflow since June 25.

IMF Declares War On Germany: In "Secret" Report Lagarde Says Greece Will Need Massive Debt Relief

Update: Europe now looks to be in damage control mode. Here's Reuters:
  • EU SOURCE SAYS EURO ZONE LEADERS KNEW OF LATEST IMF DEBT ANALYSIS FOR GREECE BEOFRE AGREEING ON THIRD BAILOUT TERMS
A divide between the IMF and Europe (read: Germany), regarding writedowns on Greece’s debt to the EU has been brewing for quite some time and recently returned to the international spotlight when, a few months back, the Fund indicated debt relief was a precondition for its participation in any further aid for Athens.
More recently, the IMF released a report on Greece’s debt sustainability just prior to the referendum.The timing appeared to be strategic and may have helped secure the "no" vote for Tsipras.
Unfortunately, the IMF didn’t appear to anticipate the PM’s complete capitulation and now, the subject of debt relief has again been put off, this time until Greece officially passes the new "deal" through parliament and legislates its terms.
Today, another "secret" IMF document on the sustainability of Greece’s debt burden has surfaced and not surprisingly, the Fund is once again pounding the table on a haircut. One is certainly left to wonder if the US (and its veto power) are pulling the strings behind the scenes and orchestrating "leaks" at opportune times. Here’s more from Reuters:
Greece will need debt relief far beyond what euro zone partners have been prepared to consider due to the devastation of its economy and banks in the last two weeks, a confidential study by the International Monetary Fund seen by Reuters shows.

The updated debt sustainability analysis was sent to euro zone governments late on Monday, hours after Athens and its 18 partners agreed in principle to open negotiations on a third bailout programme of up to 86 billion euros in return for tougher austerity measures and structural reforms.

"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM," the IMF said, referring to the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund.

European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a very dramatic maturity extension, or else make explicit annual fiscal transfers to the Greek budget or accept "deep upfront haircuts" on their loans to Athens, the report said.


The updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) was sent to euro zone governments late on Monday, hours after Athens and its 18 partners agreed in principle to open negotiations on a third bailout program of up to 86 billion euros in return for tougher austerity measures and structural reforms.

"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM," the IMF said, referring to the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund.

European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a very dramatic maturity extension, or else make explicit annual fiscal transfers to the Greek budget or accept "deep upfront haircuts" on their loans to Athens, the report said.

It was leaked as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble disclosed that some members of the Berlin government thought Greece would have been better off taking "time-out" from the euro zone rather than receiving another giant bailout.

The IMF study said the closure of Greek banks and imposition of capital controls on June 29 was "extracting a heavy toll on the banking system and the economy, leading to a further significant deterioration in debt sustainability relative to what was projected in our recently published DSA".

The latest IMF study said Greek debt would now peak at close to 200 percent of economic output in the next two years, compared to a previously forecast high of 177 percent.

Even by 2022, the debt would stand at 170 percent of gross domestic product, compared to an estimate of 142 percent issued just two weeks ago. Gross financing needs would rise to above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe and continue rising in the long term, the updated IMF study said.

Moreover, the latest projections "remain subject to considerable downside risk", meaning that euro zone countries might have to provide even more exceptional financing.

The IMF study also appeared to challenge the assumption by some European officials that Greece will be able to meet some of its financing needs from the markets in 2018.

"Borrowing at anything but AAA rates in the near term will bring about an unsustainable debt dynamic for the next several decades," it said.

In other words, the IMF is now openly at war with Germany (and its sound money compatriots like Finland) over debt forgiveness, which futher underscores the split in Europe between the German bloc and the those who favored leniency for Greece, and, by extension, a relaxation of the doctrine of strict fiscal discipline that has dominated EU politics (in word if certainly not in deed in the periphery) since the onset of the European debt crisis.
Of course any debt haircut for Greece will only serve to embolden other periphery debtor states, especially those where Syriza sympathizers enjoy growing support ahead of elections. In short, if parties like Podemos in Spain perceive that Germany has blinked on debt relief they too will push for writedowns, something we outlined in detail after the last IMF "leak" in "Did IMF Just Open Pandora's Box." 
*  *  *
Summing up the US/IMF message to Germany:

How A "Eurozone Breakdown" Became A True Black Swan Event

By definition, a "fat tail", or "black swan" event is one which nobody anticipates. Which, in this case, is precisely what happened with recent developments not so much out of Greece, but out of Brussels and the proposal for a Greek "time out" which as AEP observed "converted the eurozone into a hard-peg currency bloc" thus ending the myth of an "unconditional" monetary union once and for all.
As the first chart below (which we presented one month ago) shows, last month the fund managers responding to BofA' fund manager survey said that a "Eurozone breakdown" was was the third biggest "tail risk" to global markets. What is much more notable is that just one month earelier, in May, not a single respondent even mentioned this as a risk. 

Fast forward to July when "Eurozone breakdown" is suddenly perceived as the biggest tail risk by all those surveyed.
Ironically, without a single survey respondent expecting Greece to be an issue just two months ago, the "smartest money" around did in fact confirm that what happened in Greece in the past 2 months was indeed a "black swan."
The question now, with events in Greece front in center in everyone's mind, is what the real "fat tail" will be next: after all, and by definition, nobody can anticipate what a black swan is until it is upon us.
Just like in the case of the "Eurozone breakdown."

Complete Humiliation: Greek Parliament Pressed To "Approve" German "Coup"

Months ago we said the following about the future of Greek politics:
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Syriza show will ultimately have to be canceled in Greece (or at least recast) if the country intends to find a long-term solution that allows for stable relations with European creditors although it may be time for Greeks to ask themselves if binding their fate to Europe is in their best interests given that some EU officials seem to be perfectly fine with inflicting untold economic pain upon everyday Greeks if it means usurping the 'radical leftists.'
At the risk of overstating the case, that assessment has now proven to be almost entirely accurate. 
Greeks did indeed ask themselves if they wished to bind their fate to European "partners" who seem bent on punishing the country for its decision at the ballot box in January and nearly two-thirds of Greeks said the terms of continued EMU membership as presented by creditors were unacceptable. 
Despite that clear mandate, PM Alexis Tsipras declined what some (The Telegraph’s Abrose Evans-Pritchard for one) have suggested was a better option in German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble’s 5-year, Brussels managed, “time-out”, in favor of a deal so bad that it might have only been proposed because no one thought he would accept it. 
Now, Tsipras must push that deal through a Greek parliament where Syriza party hardliners - who tabled a proposal to default and exit the euro months ago - are quite simply beside themselves. The likely result: a party reshuffle and a recasting of the Syriza show, exactly as we said. Here’s Bloomberg with more on the political infighting:
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces two days of parliamentary maneuvering in Athens to secure approval for a package of austerity measures that threatens to break his coalition apart.

With all 18 fellow euro-area governments looking on, Tsipras is set to submit a bill to parliament on Tuesday containing sales-tax increases and pension cuts that go against his own Syriza party’s pledges. The legislation, to be voted on Wednesday, is a precondition for creditors to begin talks on a new loan of as much as 86 billion euros ($94 billion).

Dozens of Syriza lawmakers have said they will rebel against the cuts, forcing Tsipras to rely on opposition support to carry the legislation needed to keep Greece in the euro. Panos Kammenos, the defense minister and leader of Tsipras’s Independent Greeks junior coalition partner, said his lawmakers will only back those measures agreed by Greek political leaders and not those imposed by creditors, which he denounced as an attempted "coup d’etat."

"Despite potential defections" among the coalition "we think the deal will be approved with the support of opposition parties," Roubini Global Economics analysts led by Nouriel Roubini said in a note to clients. Yet the legislation means Greece "will have to endure significant austerity measures and other types of reforms, all of which are hard to implement, hard to reinforce and possibly hard for the public to accept."
And more color from FT:
Greek prime minister, on Tuesday will seek to shore up support within his own government after he accepted the most intrusive programme ever mounted by the EU as the price for a new €86bn bailout to keep Greece in the eurozone.

Mr Tsipras looks set to be forced to rely on opposition support to pass a swath of economic reform measures by Wednesday’s EU-imposed deadline or face the country’s bankruptcy, as a growing number of far-left MPs voiced opposition to the deal. The ruling Syriza party’s extremist Left Platform called it a "humiliation of Greece".

The leader of the Independent Greeks, the rightwing coalition partner, also said that his party could not agree to the accord, calling it a "coup by Germany" and its hardline eurozone allies, the Netherlands and Finland.

Marina Chrysoveloni, the Independent Greeks spokeswoman, said on state TV on Tuesday there were “limits” to the party’s support for the government “that are shaped by the mandate of the Greek people, both in January’s elections and in the referendum”.

Greek political leaders said the legislation was not at risk of failing because it had wide support of mainstream opposition lawmakers, who would make up any government defections in the 300-member legislature.

But the insurrection called into question how long Mr Tsipras could survive as prime minister once the legislation was passed. Nikos Filis, Syriza’s parliamentary spokesman, called on any government MPs who did not back the plans to resign.

With 17 government MPs failing to support a far more limited plan offered by Mr Tsipras last week, the prime minister seemed almost certain to lose his parliamentary majority, which currently stands at 12. Some analysts believe that the number of rebels could swell to as many as 30. Already, 15 far-left Syriza MPs who voted for Mr Tsipras’s plan last week have said they would not make similar commitments in the future.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, the Syriza energy minister, on Tuesday branded the agreement "unacceptable". In an emailed statement he said the deal “cancels the popular mandate and the proud ‘NO’ of the Greek people in the referendum”.
As is clear from the above - and from Yanis Varoufakis' "impressionistic" first thoughts on the Greek deal which we posted here earlier - every lawmaker in Athens is now fully aware of the fact that what has happened to Greece is nothing short of a ruthless political coup executed by Germany. The writing has been on the wall for some time and indeed we outlined the entire plan in "Democracy Under Fire: Trokia Looks To Force Greece Political Reshuffle." 
In short, we’ve said for months now that come hell, high water, or "Grimbo," Germany was going to extract its pension cuts and VAT hikes from Tsipras, and not because anyone seriously thinks it will make a difference in terms of putting the country on a 'sustainable' path, but because the EU simply cannot afford for Syriza sympathizers in more economically consequential countries like Spain to get any ideas about rolling back austerity (of 'fauxsterity' as it were) and using EMU membership as a bargaining chip.
And even as the IMF (with Washington's blessing) "suggests" that Germany "mark it zero," it may be too late to preserve democracy in the periphery because as you can see from the following, Schaeuble appears to have gotten his point across:
Greece and Spain are 2 different economies that require different strategies, Nacho Alvarez, Podemos’s economic policy chief, said Tuesday in Madrid. Alvarez says change doesn’t necessarily mean restructuring of public debt.

Dead Market Walking

Having tumbled 15pts on Grexit threats and then roared 40 pts on a Greek "deal", S&P 500 futures have traded in a 2pt range for the last 16 hours... dead market walking... or calm before the storm?


Charts: Bloomberg

Schaeuble's Modest Proposal For Greek Bridge Loan: Pay Salaries In IOUs

While Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is busy figuring out how best to go about pushing the "deal" he reached on Monday morning in Brussels through parliament, EU finance ministers are scrambling to put together billions in bridge financing that will hold Athens over until the activation of the ESM program which is likely at least four months away. Greece needs between €7 and €12 billion in the interim according to most estimates, and faces a critical payment to the ECB on July 20 - with Greek banks dependent solely on ECB liquidity, missing this payment isn’t an option. 
Of course any "payments" made by Greece to external creditors (i.e. to anyone other than former or current Greek public sector employees) will only be possible by way of circular funding schemes much like the SDR reserve raid that allowed Greece to pay the IMF with its own money in May. Here’s Open Europewith a rundown of the options under consideration for the bridge loan:
  1. European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism: Using the EFSM (an EU wide bailout fund) has been suggested since it can be activated by Qualified Majority Voting. 
  2. Profits from Eurosystem held bonds: An option for financing which was included in the last bailout was the transferral to Greece of profits from Greek bonds bought under the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) by the ECB and National Central Banks. This can be done fairly simply via a decision of member states and the central banks. However, they have previously wanted conditionality hence why it was tied into the bailout. Furthermore, this is only expected to yield around €3.5bn so falls well short of what is needed for the bridge.
  3. Bilateral loans: Some Eurozone member states could give Greece short term bilateral loans to tide it over. So far though France is the only country that seems serious about this. Given the size of the loans and the fact they would need to be provided immediately in cash it seems likely only the largest states would be able to provide them. Furthermore, such loans would need parliamentary approval in any state that provided them (tough in Germany, Netherlands, Finland and the Baltics), while they would also show up in debt levels for these countries.
  4. Short term debt: Another alternative would be to allow Greece to issue more short term debt combined with ECB liquidity which would allow Greek banks to take more of it on. However, this would run counter to the views of the ECB supervisory arm.
  5. IMF and ECB delay repayment: Over the weekend there were rumours of the ECB agreeing to delay the repayment of bonds it holds due over the summer. However, this would mark a significant change of stance for the ECB and foment German concerns over monetary financing. Since Greece is already in arrears to the IMF it could simply delay this further, though this would not be seen as acting in good faith.
As you can see, all of these options involve creditors effectively paying themselves either literally or in spirit or otherwise entail the perpetuation of some manner of ponzi scheme (i.e. allowing Greece to sell T-bills to Greek banks). And while that’s unavoidable in terms of Greece’s near-term external debts, German FinMin, and architect of the great Greek humiliation Wolfgang Schaeuble has other ideas in mind for how Greece might go about paying pensioners and government employees. Handelsblatt (Google translated)has more:
In discussing the euro zone finance ministers on a possible bridge financing Schäuble have suggested that the Athens government could spend IOUs to serve part of their domestic payment obligations, told the Handelsblatt (Tuesday edition) from participating districts. 

In the euro group on Monday this so-called "IOU" papers were re-issue.

Finance ministers consider a range of options for a bridge loan. Because to Greece money from a possible ESM bailout program will receive, it could take up to four weeks. The use of IOUs is controversial. Some experts warn that it could be a first step to a parallel currency.

The promissory notes were also located only internal payment obligations, such as bills or salaries, operate. For the external debt they are not fit. But already on July 20, has to operate, which are held by the European Central Bank (ECB) Athens expiring bonds of 3.5 billion euros.
And here’s Open Europe on the IOU option:
IOUs: An idea reported by Handelsblatt overnight and said to be proposed by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is that Greece issue IOUs to meet some of its payments. This is a bit of a non-issue though as such an approach could only be used to meet internal payments, while most of the bridge financing is needed to meet external debts to the ECB and IMF.
So it appears as though Schaeuble and Yanis Varoufakis do agree on at least one thing: that Greece may be forced to resort to the "California" IOU option to meet its domestic obligations. 
Of course Greek public sector employees have already suffered untold humiliation over the course of their government’s negotiations with creditors.
Most recently, pensioners were forced to line up at banks - which reopened briefly earlier this month to disburse pension payments - only to receive a third (around €120) of their promised payouts. The following rather haunting image is indicative of the scene the played out at banks across the country when pensioners besieged bank officials in a desperate attempt to get what little of their money was available.
*  *  *
Now, it appears Schaeuble is angling to complete the Greek pensioner degradation by ensuring that this month, retirees will receive nothing but an IOU signed by Syriza, a not-so-subtle reminder to Greek public sector workers that when you elect a belligerent government unwilling to cede to the demands of the EU paymaster, you do so at your own economic peril.