SUZI Q'S ESTATE FINDS
"Food prices among producers rose 57.1 percent, with the price for grains and vegetables rising 91 percent from January 2014 to January 2015, while the official inflation rate over the period totaled 28.5 percent.Meanwhile, Ukrainian consumers responded to economic difficulties by cutting their spending in hryvnias by 22.6 percent, which amounts to an almost 40 percent decrease in real consumption."
"A year or so on from the last coup in Ukraine, Ukraine’s former Prime Minister Sergey Arbuzov told TASS, with growing popular discontent, "another state coup can’t be ruled out in Ukraine." As the cease-fire deal hangs torn and tattered in the Debaltseve winds, the nation is a mess: a new gas dispute looms as Gazprom demands upfront payments; capital controls have been tightened as the $17.5bn IMF loan may not be enough; and the central bank governor faces prosecution as the economy craters. All of these factors have driven massive outflows from Ukraine and the Hryvnia has crashed to over 33 to the USD - a record high (and 70% devaluation from the last coup)."
Although banks could still trade with each other, by mid-morning there were no registered trades at any rate, leaving the currency in limbo. The previous day, the central bank rate based on reported trades had fallen 11 percent against the dollar.
February 23, 2015
*** Stocks in Europe are in the green, following news that Greece reached a tentative deal with its creditors to extend its bailout agreement. This follows three straight weeks of gains for euro-zone stocks. *** There are plenty of positives in Europe’s favor right now. Last year, the euro fell 12% versus the dollar. This makes euro exports more competitive relative to US exports. And the European Central Bank has said it will inject €1 trillion into the euro-zone financial system by next September, which as we now know boosts stock prices (at least over the short term). Also, sovereign bond yields are on the floor. The 10-year US Treasury note yields 2.1%. And the 10-year German Bund yields just 0.3%. There’s a lot of folks out there starved of yield. And right now, you can pick up a 3.6% dividend yield on the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE:FEZ) – which tracks 50 blue-chip euro-zone stocks – versus just 1.9% on the S&P 500. *** Valuations are attractive in Europe too. If you look at the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio – like a lot of big money managers do – the S&P 500 is trading at 17 times analysts’ estimates of earnings of the next 12 months – or about 15% above its 30-year average.
By contrast, the euro-zone stock market trades at just under 14 times forward earnings – in line with its 30-year average. *** Of course, for value-minded investors, a Greek exit from the euro would be a fantastic opportunity to snap up quality assets at fire-sale prices... This is what Bill did in Argentina in 2005, following the country’s currency crisis. As Bill told Diary readers last Tuesday, he bought a mountain ranch in northwestern Argentina “for a song.” To find out if there was a similar setup in the cards for Greece, I reached out to Bill’s overseas real estate scout, Ronan McMahon. If you don’t know him already, Ronan works closely with Bill’s top-tier family wealth advisory, Bonner & Partners Family Office. He also edits the overseas real estate advisory Real Estate Trend Alert. *** Ronan reckons Argentina is the “playbook” for real estate deals in Greece:
*** As I told Diary of a Rogue Economist readers, I don’t believe a “Grexit” is imminent. But anything could happen. And Greece still poses a major risk when the next meeting with its creditors rolls around. So, it’s no wonder there’s been a surge in demand for physical gold this year. Reports British newspaper the Sunday Telegraph:
*** If that stampede materializes, it will be good news for Building Wealth readers who acted on editor Braden Copeland’s recommendation to buy shares of gold minerRandgold Resources (NASDAQ:GOLD).  Randgold is already up 17% since Braden recommended it on November 28. And that’s with the gold price rising by just 2%. If the gold price takes off, even bigger gains are in store for Randgold shareholders. *** Remember, gold miners are leveraged plays on the price of gold. As gold stock investing expert John Doody of Gold Stock Analyst told me when I talked to him for my Investor Network advisory:
*** But Braden says Randgold’s fundamentals make it a highly conservative way to get exposure to gold… provided the gold price doesn’t collapse. (Leverage, after all, works both ways.) As he told Building Wealth readers, Randgold is one of the best-run miners in the world. And over the last decade, it’s been the best-performing stock in the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Global Gold Sector Index of 40 miners. *** But Randgold’s pedigree isn’t the only reason it’s Braden’s top gold miner recommendation. The company is carrying gold on its books for just $1,000 an ounce… which as you can see from the table below is lower than five of its major competitors.  In fact, Randgold is the only gold mining company Braden found that is using an assumed gold price meaningfully below the current price of gold. *** As Braden explains:
*** In addition to this conservative approach to accounting, Randgold has a robust balance sheet. Braden:
Randgold is trading above Braden’s “buy up to” price of $65 a share. So, if you didn’t catch his original recommendation, this is one for your “watch list.” If you already own Randgold, keep an eye on the gold price. If gold takes off… the company leverage to the gold price will really kick in. Regards,  Chris Hunter February 23, 2015 |
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/greece-misses-1st-commitment-delays-reform-list-delivery-until-tuesday“The Greek government’s capacity to agree and deliver on the conditionality of the current program remains the key source of uncertainty under the current agreement.Most immediately, the government will have to navigate the fallout from today’s agreement, as well as the ‘reform list’ that will need to be submitted on Monday.On a more forward-looking basis, it is likely that the government will have to agree to fresh revenue generating measures: even with a downward adjustment to this year’s fiscal targets, budget execution for this year is meaningfully off-track. The road ahead remains long, and it remains unclear how the current government can navigate between the commitments it has made to Europe with competing domestic political demands – both internally within the Syriza party as well as with the electorate.A small step has materialized, but the hard work is about to begin.”
