| The next panic is about to begin… 'The beginning of the end'… Three facts you need to know right now… The next dominoes to fall… This is the most detailed and timely warning I (Porter) have ever written. I hope you'll take it seriously… I know most of you won't. Later, you'll claim that you didn't see it, or you didn't take the time to read it. But the truth is… you just won't be able to process the facts I outline below. And let me be clear: These are facts. What you'll find below aren't views or opinions. Or the ramblings of some mumbling oracle. I'm not talking about "Kondratieff waves"… or George Soros' aching back. These aren't hunches or guesses. I'm going to show you, in real time, how the entire system of modern, paper-based finance is coming unraveled. It's happening right now. And I believe the panic will start in May. In fact, I believe for decades to come, the summer of 2016 will be recalled as the beginning of the end… a period of grand financial catastrophe. So I hope you'll read carefully. But I'm so afraid you won't. These obligations were not funded by patient saving, careful capital investments, a resulting gain to productivity, and increases to real wages and wealth. These credits were created, almost completely, by politicians and central bankers. The world's elite allocated this paper to achieve policy goals. The "invisible hand" of the market didn't distribute it. And it has resulted in massive, mind-blowing excess capacity in nearly every industry that's heavily financed, such as Chinese real estate development, the global automobile industry, U.S. higher education, and of course the oil business, which saw a massive ($500 billion-plus) injection of credit in just the last six years. How do I know? Because the same policies that for 20-plus years have driven finance-related profits higher have now inverted. Lower interest rates, additional debt, and more manipulation have finally led to lower earnings for the world's biggest companies and banks. And… sooner or later… we'll see a panic. I believe that's happening now. Let me show you why. Think about these two financial instruments in these terms. On one hand, the U.S. Treasury bond is the monetary "brand" that stands for inflation, easy credit, and manipulation. Its value has increased, almost every year, in an almost linear fashion since the early 1980s. Gold, on the other hand, is an ancient monetary brand. The modern bankers say it's a "barbarous" relic. Gold stands for hard money, sound banking, and market-based interest rates. It is the bane of politicians and bankers. Here's that relationship over the last three months… America's biggest corporations are a good way to judge the health of the global economy. When our best companies can't increase their earnings, we have a problem. For the last 115 years (for as long as we have reliable records), two consecutive quarters of falling U.S. corporate earnings led to a recession 81% of the time, according to investment bank JPMorgan. The only occasions that a recession was avoided were when there was a significant central-bank action to boost monetary stimulus. So how are our corporate profits doing now? The first quarter of this year marks the third consecutive quarter that saw a decline in U.S. corporate profits. And no, the problem isn't only a collapse in energy prices. The Wall Street Journal explains in detail…
What's different now? The central banks have run out of bullets. They can't push any more money or credit into the system without causing bigger problems than they solve. In summary… the gig is up. The debt burden can't be carried any longer, not without causing overcapacity that destroys corporate profits. Automotive sources indicate they expect used-car prices to decline by 5% or 6% this year – the first declines since 2008. Used-car prices are key to leasing rates and thus to the availability of credit in the sector. The amount of subprime lending that has happened in autos since 2014 means that price declines will be larger than folks expect and that credit losses will be much worse. At some point soon, the gaudy "earnings" that GM has been boasting about will be revealed to have been nothing but stupid lending and leasing to folks who can't afford new cars and trucks. Think about the amount of empty mall space. It's great that Amazon's (AMZN) earnings are soaring, but what that also means is malls are dying. Sooner or later, all of this empty commercial space will begin to hurt commercial real estate in general. Those malls are going to end up as office complexes and apartments… something nobody has figured out yet. As I've been telling you (for years), what's happening in our markets right now isn't normal. This isn't just going to be a "correction" or even a regular bear market. What's happening right now is the end of a massive credit expansion and a global experiment in paper money that is unlike anything we've ever seen before. Talking about these events as being an exercise in "market timing" is like folks on the deck of the Titanic talking about global warming. It completely misses the point. There have been periods in history – always after incredible credit inflations – when the markets themselves were destabilized to the point that there was nothing "efficient" about them. It's not that I object to the prices of stocks in the market. It's the global market itself that's broken. And if you don't think negative interest rates are the most "broken" thing you've ever seen in your financial life, you just aren't paying attention. Even if all you do is simply raise cash in your portfolio to 30% or 40%, I'm confident you'll beat the market this year. But… there's no reason you have to lose money at all. What's going to happen is a huge exchange of value… a legal transfer of wealth. And for our subscribers – who know what's happening, why it's happening, and how to profit from the situation – this year should be the best you've ever had as an investor. But you have to take action. And you have to do it right now. |
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
Baltimore, Maryland
April 29, 2016


