Sunday, July 5, 2015

The Latest: Euro falls sharply on Greece referendum results

ATHENS, Greece — The latest from the bailout referendum in Greece (all times local):
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The Latest on Greece: Polls open in bailout referendum photo
12:30 a.m.
The euro has fallen sharply as investors get a chance to react to the results of the Greek referendum.
The European currency slumped to $1.0993 late Sunday, when spot trading resumed, from $1.1110 late Friday.
The Latest: Greek vote causes deep divisions in families photo
Greeks have voted overwhelmingly against a proposal of economic reforms that Greece's creditors had offered in exchange for loans.
The win of the "no" vote puts Greece in uncharted waters and markedly increases the risks of the country falling out of the 19-country euro currency union.
Greece and its creditors are expected to try to restart negotiations on a financial rescue package for the country, but it is unclear what scope there is for compromise.
The Latest: Greek vote causes deep divisions in families photo
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12:15 a.m.
European Council President Donald Tusk says he's called a eurozone summit for Tuesday to discuss the situation in Greece.
The Latest: Greek vote causes deep divisions in families photo
Voters in Greece resoundingly rejected creditors' demands for more austerity in return for rescue loans Sunday.
The opposition accused Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of jeopardizing the country's membership in the 19-nation club that uses the eurozone and said a "yes" vote was about keeping the common currency.
Germany and France asked for the summit after the "no" vote won.
The Latest: Greek vote causes deep divisions in families photo
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11:45 p.m.
Greece's prime minister says the "no" result in the bailout referendum shows that "democracy won't be blackmailed."
The Latest: Greek vote causes deep divisions in families photo
Alexis Tsipras says Greece is willing to return to talks, but "this time the issue of debt will be on the negotiating table."
He was speaking in a live TV address on Sunday after the government-backed "no" side won by a wide margin in the referendum.
Tsipras thanked Greeks for making "a very brave choice."
The Latest: Greek PM: Greeks must choose their own future photo
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11:35 p.m.
Germany's vice chancellor and economy minister says the Greek government is leading its people "onto a path of bitter austerity and hopelessness."
The Latest: Greek PM: Greeks must choose their own future photo
Sigmar Gabriel told German daily Tagesspiegel that Alexis Tsipras had claimed a "no" vote would improve Greece's negotiating position. In fact, the Greek prime minister had "torn down the last bridges, across which Europe and Greece could move toward a compromise."
He added: "By saying no to the eurozone's rules, as is reflected in the majority 'no' vote, it's difficult to imagine negotiations over an aid package for billions."
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The Latest: Greek PM: Greeks must choose their own future photo
11:25 p.m.
Greek opposition leader Antonis Samaras announced his resignation after suffering a big defeat in Sunday's referendum.
Samaras, the 64-year-old former prime minister, has announced his decision to step down in a televised address after campaigning for a "yes" vote.
The Latest: Greek PM: Greeks must choose their own future photo
Samaras said that "I understand that our great party needs a new start."
He urged Greeks to put divisions behind them and hold the government to its promise to find a quick agreement with creditors.
Samaras, who served as prime minister between 2102 until January this year, did not say whether he intended to stay on as leader of his center-right New Democracy party.
The Latest: Greek PM: Greeks must choose their own future photo
Germany and France, meanwhile, have called for a eurozone summit on Tuesday to discuss the Greece financial crisis after the "no" vote won the bailout referendum.
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This item has been corrected to show that Germany and France called for a eurozone summit, not a European Union summit.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
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11:05 p.m.
Poland's prime minister says that if final results in Greece's bailout referendum are confirmed as "no," she believes that Greece will have no choice but to leave the eurozone.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
Ewa Kopacz spoke on Sunday as a partial count showed a significant majority of Greeks voting "no" in Sunday's referendum.
Kopacz said that she suspects that if official results confirm a "no" victory, "the path of Greece can be only one: leaving the eurozone."
Poland has not adopted the 19-member joint European currency. Though it has pledged to adopt the euro in the future, the prospect is very unpopular among Poles and politicians continue to postpone euro adoption.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
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10:40 p.m.
Greece's finance minister says the country's citizens have said "no more" to continued austerity as returns show the "no" side leading in the bailout referendum.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
Yanis Varoufakis, wearing a T-shirt while speaking live to TV cameras, says that creditors had planned from the start to shut down banks to humiliate us and to force us to make a statement of contrition for showing to them that debt and loans are unsustainable.
Varoufakis said "the Greek people said 'no more' to five years of austerity."
Greeks voted on its financial future on Sunday, choosing in a referendum whether to accept creditors' demands for more austerity in return for rescue loans or defiantly reject the deal. Final results are expected later Sunday.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
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10:25 p.m.
The head of the socialist grouping in the European Parliament has called for new negotiations with Greece in a spirit of "solidarity and cooperation" after returns show the "no" side leading in the bailout referendum.
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
Gianni Pittella says that the socialists would "expect the Greek government to come back to the negotiations with a renewed responsible attitude."
He acknowledged the international lenders would also have to show a new approach.
Pittella said Sunday that "it will also be time for some member states and ministers to stop with unacceptable rigidity, national selfishness and domestic political games."
The Latest: FM: Greeks must express views on 'ultimatum' photo
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10:10 p.m.
Thousands of government supporters have gathered in celebration in Athens' main square, waving Greek flags and chanting "No, No" after returns show their side leading in Sunday's referendum.
The Latest: Solid turnout seen so far in Greek bailout vote photo
Vendors have set up stalls to sell kebabs, sandwiches, whistles and Greek flags in Syntagma square in front of parliament.
Athens resident Yiannis Gkovesis, holding a large Greek flag, says "we don't want austerity measures anymore. This has been happening for the last five years and it has driven so many into poverty. We simply can't take any more austerity."
The 26-year-old Gkovesis says "if the Europeans really wanted Greece to stand on its feet, then they could have done so without imposing such harsh measures."
The Latest: Solid turnout seen so far in Greek bailout vote photo
Supporters of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' Syriza party staged the rally two days after he drew massive crowds to his final campaign rally — also in front of parliament.
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9:30 p.m.
The Latest: Solid turnout seen so far in Greek bailout vote photo
Belgium's finance minister is one of the first eurozone ministers to react to an official projection and opinion polls that the "no" vote will win in the Greece referendum, saying it will complicate matters.
Johan Van Overtveldt insists, however, that the door remains open to resume talks with the Greek government "literally, within hours."
He told VRT network on Sunday that the eurogroup of 19 finance ministers can again discuss measures "that can put the Greek economy back on track and gives the Greeks a perspective for the future."
The Latest: Solid turnout seen so far in Greek bailout vote photo
Greeks voted on its financial future, choosing in a referendum whether to accept creditors' demands for more austerity in return for rescue loans or defiantly reject the deal. Final results are expected later Sunday.
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8:25 p.m.
The Latest: Merkel, Hollande to hold Greece talks in Paris photo
A senior Greek opposition official says the expected "no" vote win in Sunday's bailout referendum will increase pressure on the government to reach a deal with creditors.
Vangelis Meimarkis says "if we don't have an agreement within 48 hours as the (prime minister) promised, then we are being led to a tragedy."
Meimarakis, a former parliamentary speaker and a senior conservative lawmaker, tacitly acknowledges that the government has won the critical vote, but says Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is likely to make further concessions if the talks restart.
The Latest: Merkel, Hollande to hold Greece talks in Paris photo
Meimarakis said Sunday that "I think the government has got the message that the time is over for game theory and gambling."
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8 p.m.
The Latest: Merkel, Hollande to hold Greece talks in Paris photo
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is conferring with the country's bankers over what to demand next from the European Central Bank, a ministry spokesman has confirmed.
The spokesman spoke on condition of anonymity pending official announcements. It wasn't immediately clear where the talks were taking place.
According to the head of the Greek Banks' Association, cash is only going to last until Monday.
The Latest: Greek projection: 'No' will win with over 61 pct photo
Although banks are expected to re-open Tuesday, it is almost impossible to have banks open without a large infusion of cash. Greek financial media have reported the Bank of Greece will ask the ECB for 6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in emergency assistance.
Meanwhile, a close aide to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said a "no" vote win should not be regarded as an intention by the government to leave the euro.
It is wrong to link a "no" result to an exit from the eurozone. If a "no" prevails that will help us get a better agreement," Minister of State Nikos Pappas told private Alpha television.
The Latest: Thousands of Greek 'no' supporters celebrate photo
—By Demetris Nellas.
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7:30 p.m.
The Latest: Thousands of Greek 'no' supporters celebrate photo
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Paris on Monday to discuss the outcome of the Greek referendum with French President Francois Hollande.
Merkel's office said Sunday that she will fly to Paris in the evening for a "joint assessment of the situation after the Greek referendum and to continue the close German-French cooperation on this issue."
Soon after polls closed, Hollande made a similar announcement, saying he would have a working dinner with Merkel on Monday evening to "evaluate the consequences" of the vote.
The Latest: Thousands of Greek 'no' supporters celebrate photo
Earlier in the day, the French economy minister said the German and French leaders had no disagreements when it came to dealing with the situation in Greece.
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7:20 p.m.
The Latest: Thousands of Greek 'no' supporters celebrate photo
The governing left-wing Syriza party's European member of parliament says that "Greek people are proving they want to remain in Europe" as equal members "and not as a debt colony."
Dimitris Papadimoulis said that the country should wait for the official and final results of Sunday's referendum, and called on his fellow countrymen to remain calm. Three opinion polls conducted during the voting indicate a tight race with a likely win by the "no" vote.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called Sunday's referendum last weekend, urging voters to reject creditor reform proposals. Opposition parties and many European officials have warned that a "no" vote, however, could endanger Greece's position in Europe's joint currency, the euro.
The Latest: Euro falls sharply on Greece referendum results photo
"A new effort is beginning," he said, adding that Tsipras would move fast to conclude a deal with Greece's creditors.
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6:55 p.m.
The Latest: Euro falls sharply on Greece referendum results photo
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says that whatever the result in Greece, its future will be a difficult one.
Rajoy says the eurozone has rules and regulations "to ensure its own survival."
He says that "Europe has always shown its solidarity with Greece, but the euro cannot be an 'a la carte' club in which you can pick and choose."
Rajoy also said Sunday that "Greece needs to grow, create jobs, and to do so it must have policies that work to that effect. Demagogy always ends up crashing into reality."
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4:40 p.m.
Even if Greek voters strongly favor "yes" or "no" in the bailout referendum, neither result leads to a clear answer for what Greece should do about its overstretched finances.
A "yes" result would likely produce a national unity government with a new election to follow — but that would take time, and without financial assistance, the chances of a full, chaotic default would increase.
Since Greece is no longer in a bailout program, it has to negotiate a new one with creditors that involves even more money for its debt-ridden government and the banks and new economic austerity measures. That means banking restrictions on money withdrawals and transfers may remain in place even longer than anticipated.
Despite the Greek government's assertion that a "no" vote will not lead to a "Grexit" — a Greek exit from using the common euro currency — most experts agree it would open up more uncertain financial outcomes.
A number of European politicians, including Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the top eurozone official, have said a "no" vote would jeopardize Greece's place in the 19-nation eurozone.
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3:05 p.m.
With four hours of voting to go, Greeks are turning out in solid numbers to vote on their financial future.
Private Mega TV channel says turnout has been markedly high, now standing at 35 percent, and lines have been seen at polling stations in Athens. Turnout must be above 40 percent for the referendum to be valid.
High turnouts are normal in Greece because voting is mandatory — although that law has not been enforced in recent years.
In the country's first referendum since 1974, Greece's 9.8 million voters are choosing Sunday whether to accept demands by international creditors for more austerity measures in return for bailout loans.
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2:10 p.m.
Germany's foreign minister says a 'no' vote in Greece's austerity referendum won't make a future compromises with the country's creditors easier — "on the contrary."
Still, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says Greeks have a right to vote on the future of their country and Greece will remain a member of the 28-nation European Union even if the referendum rejects the austerity demands being made of Greece by international creditors.
Steinmeier told Berlin's Tagesspiegel am Sonntag newspaper that the debt situation in Greece, the unsolved problem of how to handle tens of thousands of migrants flooding in across the Mediterranean and Britain's demands for EU reforms are straining the EU's foundations.
He warned Sunday that a "Grexit" — Greece dropping out of the common euro currency used by 19 nations— would harm Europe's credibility in the world.
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1:45 p.m.
Opinion polls this week have shown a generation divide in the Greek referendum — with the "no" vote against more austerity measures far more popular among younger Greek voters than older ones.
Retired school teacher Themis Hatziyannaki, 84, voted 'yes' Sunday at an Athens high school, saying she wants to continue enjoying the privileges of her Greek and European citizenship.
But she also says she understands that many young people want to vote "no" to express their anger at Greece's creditors. Unemployment in Greece for young people under 25 stands at a whopping 51.9 percent.
Hatziyannaki says "I understand them, because when I was young I was a rebel." But she said young people also have to consider what's best for Greece's future and look at what older generations have endured.
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1:15 p.m.
Greece's finance minister says the referendum gives Greeks the opportunity to decide on the austerity "ultimatum" they were handed by other countries in the 19-nation eurozone.
Yanis Varoufakis says the eurozone's "massive failures" led to demands for more austerity measures that Greeks themselves needed to express their views on. He said the vote on Sunday "gives hope to Europe that a common currency and democracy can coexist."
Varoufakis spoke as he voted along with his 90-year-old father Giorgos in the southern Athens suburb of Faliro.
This is the first Greek referendum since 1974, when Greeks voted to abolish the monarchy.
(This corrects the spelling of Varoufakis' first name to Yanis).
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11:40 a.m.
Greece's prime minister says the country's austerity referendum is sending the message that Greeks are embracing a united Europe but want to live "with dignity."
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said after casting a 'no' ballot Sunday that the vote demonstrates the Greek people's right to choose their own future. He said although many Greeks may pick a different choice than the government, "no one can ignore the will of the people to take their lives in their hands."
Tsipras said the referendum "defeats fear and ultimatums."  
Tsipras wants the "no" side to win. He says that will booster his negotiating position to secure a better deal with creditors for loans to avoid a default and a banking collapse.
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10:25 a.m.
The Greek referendum on whether or not to accept bailout demands by creditors is causing deep divisions, even among individual families.
Dimitris Danikoglous says he is voting "yes" because he fears Greece would be in danger if it leaves the European Union. His daughter Alexandra is voting "no" because she is tired of richer European nations bossing Greece around.
His son, Nikolas, is on his side — and he thinks polarized Greece may be on the verge of a civil war. His wife Dimitra distrusts both the Yes and the No campaigns and doesn't plan to vote in Sunday's momentous referendum.

100% Surge In Gold & Silver Coin Sales – U.S. Mint

100% Surge In Gold & Silver Coin Sales – U.S. Mint

(Kitco News) - As the second quarter came to an end, and metals prices remain range-bound, gold and silver coin sales have seen a surge this past month, up over 100% in June after dismal May sales, says one bank.
“Sales of gold coins by the U.S. Mint have now risen by 150% m/m for the four weeks of June,” said analysts from Barclays in the bank’s Gold Delta report released Monday.
“Total sales have now turned positive for a y/y basis, rising by 20%,” they added.
Based on sales data released by the U.S. Mint, 76,000 ounces of the gold 2015 American Eagle bullion coins were sold in June alone, compared to 21,500 ounces sold in May. This represents an increase in sales for the mint of over 253%. 
From the end of May to the end of June, Comex August gold prices dropped roughly 1.5%, with the metal ranging from a low of $1,168.50 to a high of $1,205.70.
For the first half of 2015, sales of the same coin amounted to 273,000 ounces, up from 266,000 ounces during 2014’s comparative period.
American Buffalo gold coin sales also saw a surge in June, although sales were much lower for the first half of this year.
The mint said June sales of the Buffalo coin reached 21,000 ounces, compared to 9,500 ounces in May, a rise of roughly 121% month over month.
However, for the first half of the year, sales were lower compared to last year. According to the mint’s data, H1 sales reached 96,500 ounces in 2015, while sales were reported higher at 111,500 ounces over the same period last year.
On the silver front, the mint reported weaker sales of its American Eagle silver coins, which reached sales of roughly 21.8 million ounces so far this year. During the same period in 2014, sales had reached about 24.13 million.
However, it is not all bad for silver coin sales as purchasers seemed to be interested in silver coins much more in June than in May.
In June, the mint reported sales of 4.84 million ounces of its American Eagle silver coins, while sales only reached 2.02 million ounces in May. This amounts to roughly a 139% rise in sales month over month.
From the end of May to the end of June, silver prices dropped roughly by 6.9%, hitting a monthly high of $17.205 and a low of $15.44.
By Sarah Benali of Kitco News sbenali@kitco.comFollow me on Twitter @SdBenali

Gerald Celente – The Great Global Panic Is On But This Is Going To Shock The World

Gerald Celente – The Great Global Panic Is On But This Is Going To Shock The World

Today the top trends forecaster in the world told King World News that the great global panic is now on throughout the world.  He also discussed one major market move is going to shock the world and the greatest threat to the global Ponzi scheme.
Eric King:  “Gerald, you know about the (KWN) Andrew Maguire interview.  He said the price of silver is set to skyrocket in a massive short squeeze (and that the short selling of gold and silver was done by central banks in order to avoid another Lehman moment).
King World News - A Remarkable View Of The War In The Silver And Gold Markets
Expect A Number Of Lock Limit Up Days In The Gold Market To Shock The World
Gerald Celente:  “Andrew knows his markets and I concur with him because we’re forecasting that the same thing is going to happen with gold.  When the gold price rises it is not going to go up slowly, it is going to spike.  You are going to see a number of up-limit days (in the gold market)….

King World News - Richard Russell - Failed Western Central Planners Are Now Trapped And Desperate
Bankster Market Manipulation Is A Fact
“For gold to be soft as we are watching a panic spread throughout the world is irrational.  There has to be manipulation.  That’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s a fact.  We know there have been manipulations whether it’s in Forex or LIBOR, and we know for a fact that banks have been convicted of felonies for rigging those markets.
King World News - The United States, Weimar Germany And What The Fed Is Really Up To
The Great Panic Is Now On Throughout The World
It’s not in the interest of the Chinese, America’s central bank, Japan, or Europe to see their currencies under pressure as gold prices rise.  In China, for example, the panic is on.  As a matter of fact the panic is on throughout the world.  We just saw the Shanghai Index decline some 30 percent from its June 12 peak!  Anyone else in any part of the world would call that a crash.
Look at what’s going on with Greece and the whole eurozone.  Than the panic is on.  How could anybody with an ounce of brains that lives in Greece keep their money in the banks as they saw this crisis unfold?  Now they are waiting in line because they have a ‘bank holiday.’  ‘Bank holiday,’ how’s that for BS?  ‘Holiday,’ we’re going to take your money and hold it and maybe we’ll give it back to you.  Look at the amount of gold purchases going on in Greece right now.  Don’t they wish they had their money in gold, rather than in a bank in Greece?
There is no recovery in Japan.  You are already looking at declines of currencies around the world.  Indonesia — the currency is down over 7 percent.  Brazil has a recession going on.
King World News - Is The Gold Market Setting Up For A Historic Worldwide Mania?
Rising Gold Prices Threaten The Global Ponzi Scheme
So central bankers around the world don’t want to see gold prices go up because that’s a direct reflection of their global Ponzi scheme.  They’ve been pumping the markets with record low interest rates.  You have zero percent interest rates here in the United States going on what, 91 months?  You are looking at negative interest rates in parts of Europe.  We saw negative Swiss and German bond yields.  
And the Chinese are desperately trying to pump up their failing market and that’s one of the biggest markets in the world.  Look at all the retail investors in the Chinese market.  It’s doubled in one year.  It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the economy.  So it (the global financial system) is one big Ponzi scheme and gold prices are (temporarily) being suppressed by the central bankers (but the price suppression won't last).”

Marine Le Pen, Anti Euro French Presidential Frontrunner, Applauds Greek Victory Over "EU Oligarchy"

Ten days ago, before Varoufakis even announced his stunning break of negotiations with the Troika and proceeded to engage in a referendum which perhaps more symbolically than anything else just said a resounding "No" to the status quo, we said to Forget Grexit, "Madame Frexit" Says France Is Next: French Presidential Frontrunner Wants Out Of "Failed" Euro.
Because while the ECB could at least in theory contain the Grexit fallout with a few hundred billion in bond (and stock, since Europe is pretty much fresh out of bonds it can monetize) purchases, it will not be able to halt the contagion once it spreads to Italy, Spain and Portugal. But once it reaches France, and Marine Le Pen engages in the same type of negotiations with the Troika as Greece just did, it's all over.
Unfortunately for the ECB, that's precisely where it is headed because as Reuters just reported, "French far-right leader Marine Le Pen welcomed the early results of the Greek referendum on terms for a bailout from Europe as initial tallies showed the 'No' camp leading with results still being counted."
Le Pen, the leader of the anti-immigration, anti-euro National Front party, said in a statement that the anticipated result was a victory against "the oligarchy of the European Union".
"This 'No' from the Greek people must pave the way for a healthy new approach," said Le Pen.
"European countries should take advantage of this event to gather around the negotiating table, take stock of the failure of the euro and austerity, and organize the dissolution of the single currency system, which is needed to get back to real growth, employment and debt reduction."
Here is why we suggest the ECB panic: Le Pen's star has been on the rise in France and in Europe in the past year since her National Front party performed well in European parliamentary and French regional elections. Surveys suggest she could make the second-round run-off in the 2017 presidential election, if not win outright.
She has sought to capitalize on discontent over Socialist President Francois Hollande's handling of the economy and rising unemployment, and has made Europe's management of the Greek crisis a particular target for critique.
As a reminder, a recent Wikileaks NSA data dump showed that the French economy is in "Dire Straits", and is "Worse Than Anyone Can Imagine" which just happens to be music to Le Pen's ears.
Finally, Le Pen's platform supports the end of the common currency zone and a return to more national-based policies on everything from immigration to the economy.
Greece just made it that much easier for Le Pen to achieve her goal.

The "Nightmare Of The Euro-Architects" Is Coming True: JPM Sees Grexit Base Case, "Split In Eurogroup In Coming Days"

Perhaps the best summary - or epitaph, some would say - of the shocking events that took place in Greece this afternoon, and the resultant falling dominoes that are about to be unleashed, was given by Slovakia's finance minister Peter Kazimir, who summarized events as follows:

He followed it up with a Dylan Thomas quote:

We assume the next lines goes as follows:
"Rage, rage against the dying of the "irreversible" currency"
And while we laid out what Deutsche Bank's 4 possible scenarios are in the case of the now confirmed "No" vote, here is JPM's Malcom Barr with the bank's latest take on Greece which is that at this point, a Grexit is JPM's "base case"... and it only
goes downhill from there.
After the "big no", euro exit is our base case
  • After the “big no” it is now a race between two forces: political pressure for a deal, versus the impact of banking dysfunction within Greece
  • Although the situation is fluid, at this point Greek exit from the euro appears more likely than not
Early indications of the official result suggest the result is a “No” by a comfortable margin. What happens next?
First, it will be important to see the tone of the immediate political responses both within Greece and outside. We would expect the tone to be somewhat more conciliatory on both sides. Hollande and Merkel are to meet tomorrow night to discuss the issue, and as we understand it, the Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on TuesdayWe expect that a split is likely to emerge in the coming days.  The Commission and France (and possibly others) will argue that negotiations should resume immediately with an aim of finding agreement. Others will find it more difficult to return to negotiations with a newly emboldened Tsipras in short order.
In the German case, for example, the Bundestag has to be consulted before Mr Schauble can enter into discussions about a new program for Greece (as requested on 30th June). However, the Bundestag has just broken for summer recess, so any such vote will require a recall. We have seen reports that talks at a technical level between Greece and the creditors may restart tomorrow (Monday), but we can imagine that the Bundestag will express its displeasure if it feels those discussions are in-progress without their express consent.
Second, there are reports of an emergency meeting between the ECB, Bank of Greece and Finance Ministry tonight, and at the latest the ECB will likely have to take a decision about ELA support tomorrow (if not tonight). Our base case is that the ELA total will simply be rolled on a day-to-day basis for now. It is extremely difficult for the ECB to justify increasing the region's exposure to Greece at this point. That effectively means that the Greek banks are likely to run increasingly short of cash, and the acceptability of electronic forms of payments will diminish rapidly.
The Bank of Greece and Finance Ministry has a joint committee working to prioritize payments out of Greece for essential imports. There are reports, however, that suggest the logistical problems arising from these procedures are biting. Importers are facing delays in seeing their requests to make purchases processed. And Greek exporters are finding it hard to get payment in euros from those they sell to, as their customers do not want to hold any euro balances within the Greek banking system. It is difficult to get a sense of the scale of these issues at this point. But our best guess is that these issues will multiply in the days ahead.
This suggests that what we see next will be a race between two forces: political pressure to move toward an agreement despite resistance from a number of northern European parliaments, versus the increasingly unpleasant implications of a dysfunctional banking system on the other. This latter force is unpredictable: it may manifest itself in pressure on the government to stand down, or it may generate a more unified “siege mentality” within Greece. The July 20th payment of €3.5bn to the ECB as Greek bonds mature creates one possibly fixed point as we look forward, but our sense is that could be dealt with via a number of mechanisms if political talks are progressing (transfer of SMP profits, short-term ESM loan, for example).
Our base case is that the pressures coming from a dysfunctional banking system in Greece will shorten the time horizon to negotiate a deal to a handful of weeks. As that pressure builds, there is likely to be a temptation to call a referendum in Greece on euro membership, and for the state to begin issuing I-O-Us or similar and giving these some status as legal tender. To the extent that pensioners and public sector employees find themselves being paid with such instruments, it takes the banks further away from solvency (they have liabilities in euros, but will have loans to individuals being paid or receiving “i-o-u” s which will be worth a lot less). Meanwhile, we expect at least some countries in the rest of the region (not least Germany) will not hurry over the design of a new program, and will find it difficult to get parliamentary assent for any such program.  
This is a path that suggests to us that there is now a high likelihood of Greek exit from the euro, and possibly under chaotic circumstances. Perhaps the rest of the region will agree to a reasonably quick deal, or the ECB will raise ELA enough to retain minimal viability in the payments system. Perhaps the pressures of dysfunctional banks will force Mr Tsipras to stand down, and a deal is subsequently made. But for now, we would view a Greek exit from the euro as more likely than not.

Official Greferendum Results Show "No" Landslide: Singular Logic Projects "Oxi" Victory

Update: The Greek interior ministry vendor Singular Logic projects that “No” vote will prevail with over 61% of vote in Greek referendum.

It would seem that the Troika's fearmongering campaign backfired:

And:

Earlier:
It seems the early forecasts showing the No vote in the lead were right: according to the Ministry of the Interiorwith over 31% of the vote counted, the "No's" have a resounding lead with well over 60% of the vote.
Keep track of the votes as they come in live at the following page:
Source: ekloges

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Richard Russell – When The Truth Gets Out It Is Going To Shock The World

Richard Russell – When The Truth Gets Out It Is Going To Shock The World

As people continue to digest breaking news out of Greece and around the world, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year-old Richard Russell, warned about a move that is going to shock the world.
Richard Russell: "The world is deflating. But people don’t want to see their standard of living go down. As a result, they continue to borrow. In turn the politicians continue to spend, and the federal debt continues to rise. On top of all this, Greece is putting its exit plan to a vote. Greece is in depression and will almost surely leave the Eurozone and the euro currency. Now it turns out that Puerto Rico, a US possession, is bankrupt and will need loans.
2015 Will Be A Year Of Panic, Desperation, & Radical Change
The Smart Money Is Dumping Stocks
It’s clear that the institutions are selling into this market. The distribution count is 8 for the S&P and 6 for the Nasdaq. Thus we are seeing clear distribution pressure on the stock market. Every market must have its trigger. I think the trigger for this market is if and when the Dow breaks 17,000. 
If Transports break below 8,000, I think it will be an ominously bearish move. What are the Transports telling us? The Dow above 17,000 is saying that goods are being manufactured, but the Transports are telling us that these goods are not being sold. They’re not being rolled out of the factories into the arms of the retail public. No, the public is increasing its savings and reducing its debts. I continue to think that we should side with nature and let a bear market clear out the debts and inflation that have built up since World War II.
I have said that in future years, the standard of living of nations throughout the world will decline. But out of the ashes of a deflated world will come a better world than ever. For my subscribers, I continue to advocate holding physical silver and gold, and getting ready for difficult times.
There's been a huge move into the US dollar, in a flight to safety. As I see it, the dollar is now overbought and overloved. I trust my subscribers are out of the market and holding only physical silver and gold.
King World News - Richard Russell - This Is Going To Shock The World
When The Truth Gets Out The Fed Is Going To Shock The World
Gold is down 8.7 and was at 1171.4. It’s suspicious that near the close each day, selling comes in to knock gold down and keep it from rising above 1200. A Russell prediction: The Fed will institute something like QE 4 and the Fed will not increase interest rates in 2015 or 2016. The US has lapsed into semi-recession and the true facts of the economy will be known before this year is out.
Free markets, like you and I, tend to inhale and exhale. We have seen the inhaling process ever since WWII. The exhaling or corrective part of the cycle will be a bear market. The bear market will clean out decades of inflation, leveraging and financial engineering. In the end we will have a better world, cleaner, more honest, and much finer.
Dow Break Below 17,000 Will Be A Major Danger Signal
We now have 8 distribution days in the S&P and 6 in the Nasdaq. This tells me that the institutions are selling into this market and it calls for caution on the part of my subscribers. It seems that few people are following stock averages anymore. I would take a Dow close below 17,000 as a danger signal.
Late Notes – While the whole investment fraternity has been searching for signs of a market top, I believe the top has appeared, like the proverbial thief in the night. The Dow has fallen below the 18,000 level, and is now negative for the year."