Monday, September 29, 2014

Heavy Demand Appears In Gold And Silver

Summary

  • Gold and silver see heavy shorting.
  • Gold and silver demand surges.
  • Gold and silver premiums rebound.
In the previous week, precious metals investors have seen gold and silver prices plunge due to heavy shorting as we can see in the most recent weekly COT report (charts below created by Correlation Economics). The probability of a short covering rally has increased tremendously.
What is most interesting to see here is that the silver market is leading the gold market with some unseen events in the silver market. For example, onSeptember 21, we saw heavy volume to the downside in after hours trading in silver. This is very unusual as we have never seen such high volume before in after hours (see chart below by Netdania.com).
(click to enlarge)
The unintended consequences from these takedowns are very pronounced when we look at gold and silver bullion demand, the premiums and the declining stock levels in Shanghai.
In the latest month we have seen heavy physical demand both for gold and silver across the globe.
Let's start with the U.S. Mint sales. In September 2014, U.S. Mint sales have rebounded from their lows (see chart below created by Correlation Economics). The downtrend in U.S. Mint gold sales has ended in my opinion.
(click to enlarge)
The ounces silver sold compared to gold has declined somewhat, but is still in a rising trend (see chart below created by Correlation Economics).
(click to enlarge)
Similarly, the Perth Mint in Australia has seen rebounds on their side as well. Gold bullion sales have risen 20% year over year (see chart below from Perth Mint).
Next on, Shanghai silver inventories have hit a new low of 80501 kg in their vaults due to increasing demand. At this rate they will be out of silver in less than 2 months, which could be an interesting event.
(click to enlarge)
Finally, we see that Chinese gold demand has started to surge this week when we look at the SGE withdrawal numbers (see chart below frombullionstar.com).
The latest number at the SGE this week indicated a 50260 kg withdrawal, which is another record number for 2014 (see table below from SGE). This tells me that China is eager to scoop up all the cheap gold.
(click to enlarge)
Premiums have started to increase heavily too (all charts below created byCorrelation Economics).
We're talking about 30% premiums for silver bullion sold by miners.
APMEX silver premiums have rebounded too (24% premium).
Shanghai Silver premiums have come down to 10% from 14% but are still at record highs.
(click to enlarge)
Conclusion: When we take a look at precious metals demand across the world, it is obvious that demand has started to surge due to the recent plunge in the gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and silver price (NYSEARCA:SLV). The increasing premiums reflect this trend.

Russia’s Gokhran Buying Gold Bullion In 2014 and Will Buy Palladium In 2015

Gokhran, the Russian precious metals and gems repository, said it has been buying gold bullion in 2014 and will likely to start buying palladium bullion in 2015, Interfax news agency reported this morning, citing the head of Gokhran, Andrey Yurin.

GOKHRAN, Russian State Precious Metals and Gems Repository

Gokhran has been buying gold bullion on the Russian market this year and has no plans to sell palladium from stock in 2014 , Yurin said.  

Gokhran’s palladium reserves are a state secret and analysts try to guess the level each year but they are widely believed to have been depleted according to Reuters.

Gokhran was influential on global platinum group metals (PGMs) markets in the 1990s and 2000s, when its palladium stocks, accumulated during the 1970s and 1980s, came to the market, depressing prices.

Gokhran is the State Precious Metals and Gems Repository which is a state institution under the Russian Ministry of Finance. It is responsible for the State Fund of Precious Metals and Precious Stones of the Russian Federation. It is responsible for the purchase, storage, sale and use of precious metals, precious stones, jewellery, rocks, and minerals by the State Fund.




Russia again added to its growing and increasingly substantial gold reserves in August, with the Russian central bank purchasing  232,510 ozs (7.23 tonnes) and bringing its total gold reserves to 35.769 million ozs or 1,112.5 tonnes.
Likewise, the National Bank of Kazakhstan purchased a very large 795,213 ozs or 24.7 tonnes in August bringing its total gold reserves to 5.848 million ozs (181.9 tonnes).


Palladium is already in a structural deficit and this new source of demand should result in palladium continuing to see gains in the coming months.


MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,217.75, EUR 955.71 and GBP 750.54 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,222.25, EUR 958.70 and GBP 749.11 per ounce.

Gold fell $3.50 or 0.29% to $1,217.50 per ounce and silver climbed $0.11 or 0.63% to $17.63 per ounce Friday. Gold and silver were both down on the week at 0.01% and 1.51% respectively.
Gold in Singapore was essentially flat, trading around the $1,219/oz level and remained tethered to this level in London trading. Palladium gained about 1% while silver and platinum were largely unchanged.
The dollar hit a four year peak against a basket of currencies this morning and this is pressuring the precious metals.

Gold Down 5.2% In September and Headed For Quarterly Loss Of Over 8%
September has been a poor month for precious metals. Gold is down 5.2%, despite it being gold’s strongest month from a seasonal perspective. The price fall means that gold is heading for the first quarterly loss this year.

Silver has fallen by a larger amount and is down 9.6%. While platinum is 8.3% lower.

Palladium’s 12.7% drop this month means that it is on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2011. It remains higher for the year and is 12.5% higher than the low in January 2014 at $693/oz.

Demand for physical gold could be affected by the Chinese holiday period that begins this week, MKS note this morning.

"Beginning on Wednesday this week we have Chinese Golden Week commencing, which will keep Chinese markets shut between 1-8 October," it said. "Given the natural support derived from Chinese physical demand, their absence over this period, combined with another strong payrolls figure expected this Friday, could heap added pressure on the gold. This is a very similar scenario to last year where gold was aggressively sold by speculators during the absence of the Chinese."


Gold in USD - 5 Years (Thomson Reuters)

Canny buyers  in Asia and globally will use further price weakness to dollar cost average into gold.

Friday, September 26, 2014

September 29, 2014: This could be the most important day for gold in years

September 29, 2014: This could be the most important day for gold in years

For years, we’ve heard claims the price of gold is being manipulated. Five days from now, we could find out…
The Wall Street Journal reports the Shanghai Gold Exchange will open to international trading on September 29, in the city’s new free-trade zone. The exchange will allow foreign investors to trade gold – including physical gold –denominated in China’s currency, the yuan, for the first time.
China’s goal is to gain more influence over global gold markets that have traditionally been controlled by the West. As the world’s largest gold producer and consumer, this move isn’t surprising… but some suggest it could finally set the gold price “free” from manipulation.
Writing for LewRockwell.com, author Bill Sardi says this means “there will be a marketplace where gold cannot be easily manipulated by gold futures and options (paper gold) compared to physical gold… We are going to find out the real value of gold in an open market. The same goes for silver.”
We here at The Crux can’t say for certain if this is true. We have no crystal ball. But expanding the global market for gold can only be a good thing for price transparency… And if you’ve been waiting for a good reason to pick up a little more gold, this could be it.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Robust as Precious Metals Sell Off

Submitted by GoldCore on 09/24/2014 04:54 -0400

Despite the recent bout of price weakness, gold American eagle coin sales from the U.S. Mint have picked up significantly from last month.
The latest bullion coin sales figures from the U.S. Mint show a tentative pickup and robust retail bullion demand, with September sales stronger for both the  American Eagle and American Buffalo gold coins as well as for the American Eagle silver 1oz coins.
U.S. Mint Gold Buffalo Bullion Coin (1 oz)
Month-to-date for September, gold Eagle sales across all coin sizes have already reached 43,200 oz compared to total gold Eagle sales of 25,000 oz in August. This is also well ahead of September 2013, when total gold Eagle sales for the month only touched 13,000 oz.
Year-to-date American Eagle sales have now reached 364,200 oz.
Gold American Buffalo 1 oz sales so far this month have reached 10,500 oz, up from 8,000 oz in August, and 5,500 oz in July. With a strong first quarter, year-to-date American Buffalo sales are now running at a cumulative 135,500 oz for 2014. 
Taken together, U.S.  Mint gold Eagle and Buffalo sales for 2014 have now reached 500,000 troy oz, or 15.5 tonnes.
While this gold total falls short of the 1.1 million ozs of gold coins sold by the US Mint in 2013, if Q4 of 2014 continues the trend seen in Q3, then total gold sales by the Mint could reach just shy of 700,000 oz for all of 2014, which demonstrates an element of resilience in the face of the ongoing gold price weakness. 

Silver American Eagle 1 oz sales are also stronger for the month-to-date, at 2.42 million ozs compared to 2.0075 million ozs for the full month of August. 
While these monthly totals are weaker than the monthly sales in August and September 2013, which came in at 3.625 million ozs and 3.103 million ozs respectively, the year-to-date silver total for 2014 is running at a relatively strong 30.53 million ozs, and if the trend continues, silver sales may finish 2014 in the region of 40 million ozs which compares well with the 2013 silver sales total of 42.675 million ozs. This is because although 2013 silver sales has a very strong start compared to 2014, this year has seen relatively strong sales across most months. 
The U.S. Mint is unusual in that its gold and bullion coin sales figures are updated very frequently and, as far as possible, the figures include sales activity in the most recent week or previous week.
Working stock of gold bars in the United States Mint Facility in West Point, New York - Bloomberg
Other government mints such as the Royal Canadian Mint and the Royal Mint in Britain do not have such real time bullion sales reporting. Publically available bullion coin sales data from these institutions has to be sourced from their quarterly, half yearly and annual report updates. 
However, in Australia, the Perth Mint does release monthly data on gold and silver coin and bar sales with a one month lag. Data for August shows gold sales stronger at 36,369 ozs compared to 25,103 ozs in July, with silver sales also up strongly at 818,856 ozs compared to 577,988 ozs in July. 
Overall, the U.S. Mint bullion sales figures, due to their real-time nature, are used extensively in the industry as a proxy for retail gold and silver investor sentiment, and are even included in a number of well known bullion bank commodity and precious metals research reports.
While extrapolating the U.S. Mint figures to other Mint bullion sales requires caution, the sales trends of the U.S. Mint tend to be confirmed when quarterly data from the Mint's main competitors is put into the public domain. 
Smart money continues to accumulate bullion as prices are pushed lower. 

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Gold Demand In India Triples As China Launches Global Gold Bourse Tomorrow

Submitted by GoldCore on 09/17/2014 07:34 -0400

Indians Prepare To Buy Gold At Diwali 
The Death Of The Indian Gold Market Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
Trade statistics for the month of August have just been released in India, showing a huge surge in gold imports compared to August of 2013. The value of gold officially imported into India in August totalled $2.04 billion, which was nearly three times more than the August 2013 figure of $739 million. 
Although the Indian trade deficit fell to $10.84 billion in August from $12.2 billion in July on the back of a lower oil price and a drop in the value of oil imports from $14.3 billion to $12.8 billion, the deficit would have been lower were it not for the surge in the value of gold imports.
Official gold imports for the three months to June had fallen to $7 billion from $16.5 billion in the similar three month period last year. But Indian customs seizures have also risen suggesting the unofficial import trade is just circumventing the restrictions.
Import restrictions had curbed official imports but gold smuggling has intensified. Gold smugglers are very resourceful when it comes to importing gold into India, and smuggling is also set to intensify before the Diwali festival in October.
Recent gold premiums in India have been $4-$5 an ounce but are expected to increase to between $10-$12 an ounce as the festival and wedding seasons peak.
In India, gold demand rises during the festival season from a monthly average of 40-50 tonnes to over 60 tonnes a month. As usual, there is expected to be a pick-up in gold demand this year ahead of the five day festival centred around Diwali.
Diwali is on October 23 but the five day festival really begins with Dhanteras, the first day of Diwali on October 21 and ends with the last day called Bhai Dooj on October 25.
The wedding season is also approaching and this peaks in November and December. Gold is given as gifts and dowries during the wedding season and also acts as a source of demand for jewellery.
Over the last two years, there has been a concerted effort by the Indian government and the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, to discourage gold imports. This has taken the form of continued hikes in gold import duties, the introduction of various gold import restrictions for banks and trading houses, while at the same time incentivising Indian banks to promote gold-backed products and gold deposit schemes so as to take Indian gold out of circulation and into the hands of the banks.
Without citing the Indian government's orchestrated campaign to try to smash Indian gold imports, some anti-gold media have recently been calling the death of gold buying in India, pointing to the increased interest by the younger urban population in modern financial savings and investments. However, the fact that Indian gold imports remain strong and bounce back any time government restrictions are lowered proves that this anti-gold media sentiment is mistaken.

Shanghai Gold Exchange
Today the Chinese government backed Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) brought forward the launch date of its international gold trading platform which is hosted in the city’s free trade zone (FTZ). The gold trading platform will be known as the ‘international board’.
In a surprise announcement, the SGE said today that the international board will go-live this Thursday September 18, eleven days ahead of its original launch date of Monday September 29.
Forty members of the Exchange including global banks UBS, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Standard Chartered, will participate in gold trading on the SGE’s international board, trading 11 yuan denominated physical gold contracts including the large 12.5 kg (400 oz) bar, the ever popular 1 kg  bar and a 100 gram contract.
The location of the SGE international board in the Shanghai free trade zone is symbolic in that this location has been earmarked by the Chinese government as part of financial sector internationalisation strategy.
The SGE is also opening a precious metals vaulting facility in the free trade zone with a  1,000 tonne capacity limit.
In a related development yesterday, the Hong Kong based precious metals trade organisation, the Chinese Gold and Silver Society (CGSE) announced that they have been given permission by the Chinese government to construct a precious metals storage vaulting facility in a special economic zone in Shenzhen in China. 
The CGSE is the the first non-mainland entity to be given such permission. The CGSE’s vaulting facility will have a 1,500 tonne capacity and will be completed by late 2016 or early 2017.  
Shanghai skyline
Developments in the Asian precious metals markets are continuing to advance at a rapid pace. The pace of developments changes daily as illustrated by the acceleration this week of the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s international board.
Indian buying has remained strong throughout the period of weakening prices and the period of artificial demand constraints imposed by the Indian financial authorities. 
In Asia gold demand remains an overall structural phenomenon, and is not purely cyclical.
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,238.75, EUR 956.93 and GBP 765.70 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,234.75, EUR 955.62 and GBP 759.43 per ounce.
Gold climbed $3.20 or 0.26% to $1,233.90 per ounce and silver rose $0.03 or 0.16% to $18.68 per ounce yesterday.
Gold recovered overnight in Asian trading and reached $1,235.80 in Singapore before hitting $1,238.00 in London, up 0.45% from yesterday’s New York close. Silver was trading at $18.75, up 0.53% from New York close yesterday.
In the platinum group metals, palladium was 0.71% lower today at $839, while platinum edged lower by 0.15% at $1,369.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Inflation Watch: How Much $1 Used To Get You!

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2014 15:06 -0400

Despite promises that inflation is "contained," the dollar ain't quite what it used to be...



Why The Rigging Of The Gold Market Matters

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via The Cobden Centre

In a radio interview recently I was asked a question to which I could not easily give a satisfactory reply: if the gold market is rigged, why does it matter?
I have no problem delivering a comprehensive answer based on a sound aprioristic analysis of how rigging markets distorts the basis of economic calculation and why a properly functioning gold market is central to all other financial prices. The difficulty is in answering the question in terms the listeners understand, bearing in mind I was told to assume they have very little comprehension of finance or economics.
I did not as they say, want to go there. But it behoves those of us who argue the economics of sound money to try to make the answer as intelligible as possible without sounding like a committed capitalist and a conspiracy theorist to boot, so here goes.
Manipulating the price of gold ultimately destabilises the financial system because it is the highest form of money. This is why nearly all central banks retain a holding. The fact we don’t use it as money in our daily business does not invalidate its status. Rather, gold is subject to Gresham’s Law, which famously states bad money drives out the good. We would rather pay for things in government-issue paper currency and hang on to gold for a rainy day.
As money, it is on the other side of all asset prices. In other words stocks, bonds and property prices can be expected to rise measured in gold when the gold price falls and vice-versa. This relationship is often muddled by other factors, the most obvious one being changing levels of confidence in paper currencies against which gold is normally priced. However, with bond yields today at record lows and equities at record highs this relationship is apparent today.
Another way to describe this relationship is in terms of risk. Banks which dominate asset markets become complacent about risk because they are greedy for profit. This leads to banks competing with one another until they end up ignoring risk entirely. It happened very obviously with the American banking crisis six years ago until house prices suddenly collapsed, threatening to take the whole financial system down. In common with all financial bubbles everyone ignored risk. History provides many other examples.
Therefore, gold is unlike other assets because a rising gold price reflects an increasing perception of general financial risk, ensuring downward pressure on other financial asset prices. So while the big banks are making easy money ignoring risks in equity and bond markets, they will not want their party spoiled by warning signs from a rising gold price.
This is a long way from proof that the gold market is manipulated. But the big banks, and we must include central banks which are obviously keen to maintain financial confidence, have the motive and the means. And if they have these they can be expected to take the opportunity.
So why does it matter if the gold price is rigged? A freely-determined gold price is central to ensuring that reality and not financial bubbles guides us in our financial and economic activities. Suppressing the gold price is rather like turning off a fire alarm because you can’t stand the noise.

September Is (Still) The Best Month For Buying Gold!

Submitted by Sprout Money on 09/14/2014 10:21 -0400

At Sprout Money we have been advocates of gold for as long as we can remember. In our opinion, every portfolio should have some exposure to the yellow precious metal regardless of the profile of the investor.
It is one of our favorite investment themes and it will remain to be so for a long time…
The reason for that is simple: the gold price has been in a secular bull market since the year 2000. We stick to that view despite the fact that in 2011 gold fell into a cyclical bear market and started crumbling just short of 2,000 dollar per ounce.
Different elements were at the source of gold’s decline:
  • First and foremost competition came from the stock market, which has been in a cyclical bull market since 2009 on the back of the financial crisis.
  • Secondly, the dollar has been gaining momentum again and makes gold look like a less attractive investment.
  • The overall sentiment is a third element that cannot be underestimated, however, and is related to psychological factors and the media.
A majority of participants of the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey indicated that they expect the gold price to decrease, for example. In their opinion, gold will have a tough time dealing with the improving macroeconomic landscape in the US and the looming interest rate increase.
As Kitco states: "Out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, five see higher prices, 18 see lower prices and one sees prices trading sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts."
That is all nicely visualized on the infographic below.
Kitco-bullish-bearish-survey
It is important to know that most of the participants in these kinds of polls are gold bugs, which makes the result even more clear as a reference to the sentiment surrounding gold.
And then there are the classic ‘short sellers’ in gold, of which one can wonder what their hidden agenda is.Goldman Sachs, for example, stated on CNBC just last week that they are sticking to their original 1,050 USD per ounce price target for the end of the year.
Their commodity specialist gave his usual speech about the fact that safe haven buying because of the crisis in Iraq and Ukraine and the recent quantitative easing in Europe and Japan have supported the gold price a little bit.
According to this analyst the Fed is playing the part of the bad guy here, which is why he advises to short gold. The appetite for short selling is quite noticeable actually, judging by the open interest on the gold markets.
From a contrarian standpoint, that is more a symptom of a market that appears to be bottoming out than of an imminent crash, however. Meanwhile demand from retail investors seems to be stabilizing as well, as demand for gold coins like the Krugerrand or the American Eagle is slowly picking up.
And without anyone taking the time to write about it, physical gold deliveries in Shanghai doubled over the last two months. As with many things: if no one writes about it, you will find the truth atSprout Money ;-).
The stronger demand for physical gold has the effect, moreover, of increasing the gearing of the shorts on the paper gold market.
Nevertheless, it seems like short sellers have tightened their grip on this market; open interest in gold increased which, in combination with a lower price, confirms that futures are being driven by an increase in short positions. The chart below makes that clear, especially from the 27th of August when the decline started.
NB2
This is another indication of the fact that the gold market is bottoming out.
The last thing you want to do now is state that a stronger dollar automatically leads to lower gold prices, because the recent momentum in the dollar has mostly been the consequence of weakness in other currencies; think of the strong decline in the yen as a result of the weaker Japanese economy. The ECB lowered interest rates to practically zero, and the British pound is sweating because of Scotland’s independence campaign.
A more plausible analysis is that the investment community is still not worried about systemic risks in the financial system. The stock and bond markets are still doing very well, although volatility has picked up a bit. The perceived risk has declined.
But in the longer term there are plenty of risks left in the system and demand from growth markets will remain strong as well. Many countries in the Middle East and the Far East are still net buyers of gold; thedemand from the central banks of China, Russia, etc. remains strong.
The chart below makes that quite clear!
NB3
Russian gold reserves 2011 - 2014 (per ton)
Decreasing exposure to gold in your portfolio therefore does not seem like a smart move at the moment. It would be like cancelling your Florida hurricane insurance in June. Keep gold in your portfolio and profit from this temporary weakness in the yellow precious metal’s price and the sentiment on the market.
Those investors who like to time their purchases probably know already that September is the best month to buy gold as well, as evidenced by the following chart.
NB4
Gold has gained 3% on average in the month of September over the last 20 years, far ahead of November (1.8%) in second place.
The interesting part is that this usually is the result of a comeback from weaker circumstances, which is exactly the situation where in right now. Especially the weakness in the price is remarkable.
The coming months are definitely looking up for gold based on seasonal factors in countries like India and China, moreover, and it is most probable that the gold mining sector will capitalize on the revival.
In short, the current weakness in the gold price will once again be considered as a unique buying opportunity in hindsight. Unfortunately not many investors make use of these kinds of opportunities.
Sprout Money offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lastingcycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies from Sprout Money are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Technology Report.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014

The Gold Series: 2014 Trends and Beyond (PART 5 of 5)


Gold Trends for 2014 and Beyond

2014 GOLD SERIES: PART 5 OF 5

“2014 TRENDS AND BEYOND” PRESENTED BY: GOLDCORP

This infographic, the finale of our five part 2014 Gold Series, covers gold trends that investors should be watching through the rest of the year and beyond.
With input from some of the most important names in gold such as Brent Cook, Doug Casey, Frank Holmes, Bob Moriarty, and James Fraser, we aim to cover the broadest and most important signals for investors to watch. Those include Chinese wealth, Indian demographics, money printing, debt, and a lack of significant gold discoveries.
The 2014 Gold Series is now over – thank you for reading! Don’t forget to connect with Visual Capitalist to receive daily infographics through e-mail or social media.

The Gold Series: Five Reasons To Own Gold (Part 4 of 5)


Five Reasons To Own Gold

2014 GOLD SERIES: PART 4 OF 5

“FIVE REASONS TO OWN GOLD” PRESENTED BY: GOLDCORP

This infographic, part four in our 2014 Gold Series, covers the best reasons to own gold.
1) Gold helps investors diversify their portfolios.
2) Gold is a great store of value.
3) Gold helps protect against inflation and other risks.
4) Gold demand is driven by a growing east, while grades are dropping and new discoveries are more scarce.
5) Gold stocks are as cheap as they have ever been, using the GDX as a proxy.
Part 5 will cover trends in the gold sector for 2014. Click here to make sure you are on our free list to receive it.

The Gold Series: The Eclipsing Demand of the East (Part 3 of 5)


The Eclipsing Demand of the East: The Gold Series Part 32014 GOLD SERIES: PART 3 OF 5

“THE ECLIPSING DEMAND OF THE EAST” PRESENTED BY: GOLDCORP

This infographic, part three in our 2014 Gold Series, covers the rise of Asian demand for the yellow metal.
Lifted by a continued surge in Asian gold sales, consumer demand for gold reached an all-time high in 2013 at 3,893 tonnes. Amazingly, 54% of this demand came from two places: India and China.
However, it is only recently that the East has dominat
ed global demand for the yellow metal. In this infographic, we look at India and China specifically to see why demand keeps expanding in the East.
Part 4 of The 2014 Gold Series on reasons to own gold will go out at the beginning of June. Click here to make sure you are on our free mailing list to receive it.